There is this anecdote about Joe Kennedy, JFK’s father, who got out of the stock market shortly before the Great Depression, because his shoeshine boy gave him investment tips. It is now referred to the Shoeshine Boy Indicator.
I think we’re at a stage of the NFT (collectibles) market, where scams, rug pulls and unethical influencer behavior are everywhere, with some estimates as high as 80% of all current NFT (PFP?) projects. This comes in addition to the usual “number go up” and “to the moon” shills and paper hand “accusations” for those taking profits, which have long been common in NFT collecting.
There definitely is an NFT speculation cycle going on right now, which evidently has to come to an end some time. Everybody and their mother are talking about NFTs and cryptocurrencies.
But right now, in my subjective perception, the promises of “get rich quick”, which attract average retail investors frustrated by stock and ETF performances through influencers leveraging their audience to sell NFT projects, are broken more often than not. Since I believe that markets are narratives, the more a “current NFT projects are scams” narrative hardens, the more likely is the current speculation cycle to end—the bubble to burst.
When, that of course is the question.
Disclaimer: I’m not saying that
- every new NFT project is a scam at the moment,
- the NFT speculation bubble burst is coming right now,
- it will be permanent or
- that I’ve lost all conviction in new NFT projects
—but more DYOR and caution is definitely advised in the coming weeks and months.
This post was first published on my Mirror blog.